Market Pulse

Index	Last Week	1-Month (Trailing)	YTD
DJIA	−0.67%	+1.65%	+0.66%
S&P 500	−1.03%	+0.43%	+0.19%
Nasdaq	−1.52%	−0.76%	−0.03%
Russell 2000	−1.12%	+1.66%	+0.96%
MSCI EAFE	+0.51%	+2.26%	+0.60%
MSCI EM	+2.30%	+3.83%	+1.79%
Bloomberg U.S. Agg	−0.19%	−0.34%	−0.03%
Bloomberg U.S. Corp HY	+0.09%	+0.06%	+0.05%

Data as of: Friday, January 2, 2026, 4:00 p.m. ET

See important disclosures below.

12/29/2025 - 01/02/2026

U.S. Economy

• Fed minutes signaled gradual easing with divisions lingering

• Housing beat expectations and jobless claims improved

Equity Market

• Stocks slipped as seasonal tailwinds faded

• Energy and semis outperformed while small-caps lagged

Bond Market

• Treasuries firmed with continued curve steepening

• Markets priced cautious Fed cuts

Around the Globe

• Dollar strengthened while gold and silver fell

• Energy and China tech showed leadership

The Week Ahead…

01/05/2026 - 01/09/2026

• Mon

  • ISM Manufacturing Index

  • Europe retail sales

  • Sentix Economic Index

• Tue

  • AAR Corp earnings

  • PMI Services reading

  • API crude inventories

• Wed

  • Constellation, Albertsons, Cal-Maine, MSC, UniFirst

  • ADP employment report

  • ISM Services Index

• Thu

  • Acuity, Commercial Metals, Helen, RPM, SYNNEX

  • Weekly jobless claims

  • Trade Balance data

• Fri

  • Nonfarm Payrolls report

  • Unemployment rate update

  • Michigan Sentiment (Jan)

We start the week with fresh reads on activity and sentiment, highlighted by the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday and PMI Services on Tuesday. Together, these reports will help shape expectations around whether economic momentum is cooling gradually or showing renewed resilience, particularly as inflation continues trending lower. CES also takes place in Las Vegas, where conversations are expected to center less on consumer gadgets and more on AI infrastructure and semiconductor demand.

Mid-week turns toward the labor market and business demand. ADP payrolls, JOLTS openings, factory orders, and the ISM Services Index arrive Wednesday, a cluster that should offer meaningful insight into hiring trends, corporate confidence, and whether services inflation pressures are easing. Thursday brings jobless claims, productivity, labor costs, and the trade balance, adding more texture around growth and inflation dynamics.

The week culminates Friday with the Nonfarm Payrolls report, unemployment rate, and wage data, alongside consumer sentiment, which are key inputs for markets and the Fed.

-Matt Shaw, CFA

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